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Discussion of paper by Professor William Keatinge: Mortality related to cold and air pollution in London after allowance for effects of associated weather patterns Environ Res 2001;86:209-216

1. Members’ attention is drawn to the attached paper by Professor William Keatinge.

2. The thrust of Professor Keatinge’s paper is that if temperature effects are adjusted for in a more comprehensive way than is usual in time-series studies then apparent associations between day-to-day concentrations of some pollutants and health effects have low statistical significance. Professor Keatinge suggests that low temperature days occurring as long as 20 days before the day of analysis should be taken into account.

3. It is notable that even after such adjustment, associations with some indices of particles, PM₁₀ rather than Black Smoke, seem to remain significant.

4. Professor Keatinge cannot be present at this meeting but a preliminary discussion of his paper would be useful. Questions raised by Members will be discussed with Professor Keatinge and it is hoped that he will be able to attend our next meeting.

5. Members’ comments on Professor Keatinge’s paper are invited.

Secretariat

October 2001

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